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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still