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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd